Rayleigh and Wickford
Westminster constituency · England · East of England
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives Reform UK a 85% chance of winning, with an average lead of 2.2 points.
Competitive. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 95%.
Compared with the average
| Reform UK | Conservative | Labour | Lib Dems | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rayleigh and Wickford | 34.7% | 32.7% | 15.6% | 7.6% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 23.1%+11.6 | 20.4%+12.3 | 24.3%−8.7 | 10.3%−2.7 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 97,654 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 45 |
| Employment rate | 88.3% |
Current member
Mr Mark Francois · Conservative
Previous election (2024)
The Conservatives won by 11.7 points.
Our current projection: Reform UK ahead by 2.2 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Francois Elected | Conservative | 17,756 | 37.0 |
| Grant Randall | Reform UK | 12,135 | 25.3 |
| James Hedges | Labour | 11,823 | 24.6 |
| Stewart Mott | Lib Dems | 4,068 | 8.5 |
| Chris Taylor | Green | 2,196 | 4.6 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Maldon Conservative, toss-up
- Castle Point Reform UK, toss-up
- Basildon and Billericay Reform UK, competitive
- Southend West and Leigh Reform UK, toss-up
- Chelmsford Lib Dems, safe seat
- South Basildon and East Thurrock Reform UK, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated