Basildon and Billericay
Westminster constituency · England · East of England
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives Reform UK a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 6.2 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 26%.
Compared with the average
| Reform UK | Conservative | Labour | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Basildon and Billericay | 33.9% | 27.7% | 21.7% | 8.1% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 23.1%+10.9 | 20.4%+7.3 | 24.3%−2.5 | 10.4%−2.3 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 108,648 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 38 |
| Employment rate | 79.9% |
Current member
Mr Richard Holden · Conservative
Previous election (2024)
The Conservatives won by 0.1 points.
Our current projection: Reform UK ahead by 6.2 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Richard Holden Elected | Conservative | 12,905 | 30.6 |
| Alex Harrison | Labour | 12,885 | 30.6 |
| Stephen Conlay | Reform UK | 11,354 | 27.0 |
| Edward Sainsbury | Lib Dems | 2,292 | 5.4 |
| Stewart Goshawk | Green | 2,123 | 5.0 |
| Christopher Bateman | Other | 373 | 0.9 |
| Dave Murray | Other | 192 | 0.5 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- South Basildon and East Thurrock Reform UK, safe seat
- Rayleigh and Wickford Reform UK, toss-up
- Maldon Conservative, toss-up
- Castle Point Reform UK, toss-up
- Chelmsford Lib Dems, safe seat
- Thurrock Reform UK, competitive
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated