South Basildon and East Thurrock
Westminster constituency · England · East of England
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives Reform UK a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 17.8 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| Reform UK | Conservative | Labour | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| South Basildon and East Thurrock | 40.0% | 21.9% | 19.3% | 8.1% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 23.1%+16.9 | 20.4%+1.5 | 24.3%−4.9 | 10.4%−2.3 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 102,500 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 39 |
| Employment rate | 77.5% |
Current member
James McMurdock · Independent
Previous election (2024)
Reform UK won by 0.3 points.
Our current projection: Reform UK ahead by 17.8 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| James McMurdock Elected | Reform UK | 12,178 | 30.8 |
| Jack Ferguson | Labour | 12,080 | 30.5 |
| Stephen Metcalfe | Conservative | 10,159 | 25.7 |
| Neil Speight | Other | 1,928 | 4.9 |
| Elizabeth Grant | Green | 1,718 | 4.3 |
| Dave Thomas | Lib Dems | 1,071 | 2.7 |
| Steven Burnett | Other | 275 | 0.7 |
| Simon Breedon | Other | 140 | 0.4 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Castle Point Reform UK, toss-up
- Basildon and Billericay Reform UK, competitive
- Gravesham Reform UK, toss-up
- Rayleigh and Wickford Reform UK, toss-up
- Maldon Conservative, toss-up
- Thurrock Reform UK, competitive
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated