Sports forecasts
Baseball, hockey and the archive of the world soccer tournament.
MLB postseason: the Milwaukee Brewers are the World Series favourite, at 23%.
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Major League Baseball
Every team’s chances, recalculated each night from 10,000 simulations. The Toronto Blue Jays did not qualify.
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2026 Stanley Cup: Carolina Hurricanes
Runner-up: Anaheim Ducks. Forecasts resume with the new season.
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2026 world tournament: Spain wins
Spain beat Argentina 1–0 after extra time. The archive keeps what the model saw, from kickoff to the final.
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Our sports track record
Every published sports forecast, compared with the result.
Prediction market
Methodology after the signal
How we make sports forecasts
Each season is simulated thousands of times from each team’s strength, then recalculated after every result.
- MLB: each team’s strength comes from runs scored and allowed; every remaining game is simulated from the two teams’ strength. Official MLB data.
- NHL: each playoff series is simulated, taking goaltenders’ recent form and injuries into account.
- Every published forecast is archived and compared with the result in our track record.