Who has the cleanest path to the World Series?
10,000 Monte Carlo simulations nightly. Pythagenpat strength, log5 matchups, 0 games left on the schedule.
And the Blue Jays — are the playoffs still in reach at 0.0%?
Reading as of October 15, 2026 · 22:30 UTC
World Series favorite · NL Central
🍺 Milwaukee Brewers
Pennant: 35.8% · Division: 100.0% · Playoffs: 100.0%
Record: 103-59 · 103.0 expected wins
Runner-up · NL West
🔵 Los Angeles Dodgers
Pennant: 31.7% · Division: 100.0% · Playoffs: 100.0%
Record: 100-62 · 100.0 expected wins
Canadian focus · AL East
🍁 Toronto Blue Jays
Pennant: 0.0% · Division: 0.0% · Playoffs: 0.0%
Record: 79-83 · 79.0 expected wins
The board of 30
Every team, every probability.
Click a header to sort — playoffs, division or World Series. AL/NL filter and sort travel in the link.
| Team | Record | Strk | Exp. wins | Playoffs | Division | Bye | Pennant | World Series |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🍺 Milwaukee Brewers NL Central | 103-59 | W5 | 103.0 | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 35.8% | 23.4% |
| 🔵 Los Angeles Dodgers NL West | 100-62 | W3 | 100.0 | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 31.7% | 19.7% |
| ☀️ Tampa Bay Rays AL East | 98-64 | L1 | 98.0 | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 32.4% | 14.6% |
| 🎩 New York Yankees AL East | 93-68 | W1 | 93.0 | 100.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 18.6% | 8.3% |
| 🛡️ Cleveland Guardians AL Central | 85-77 | L1 | 85.0 | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 20.0% | 6.8% |
| 🪓 Atlanta Braves NL East | 94-68 | L1 | 94.0 | 100.0% | 100.0% | 0.0% | 11.2% | 6.4% |
| 🐻 Chicago Cubs NL Central | 89-73 | W1 | 89.0 | 100.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 9.0% | 4.9% |
| 🧦 Boston Red Sox AL East | 87-75 | L1 | 87.0 | 100.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 10.3% | 3.9% |
| 🌴 San Diego Padres NL West | 91-71 | W2 | 91.0 | 100.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 7.7% | 3.9% |
| ⚫ Chicago White Sox AL Central | 84-78 | W1 | 84.0 | 100.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 10.5% | 3.7% |
| 🚀 Houston Astros AL West | 81-81 | W2 | 81.0 | 100.0% | 100.0% | 0.0% | 8.1% | 2.3% |
| 🔔 Philadelphia Phillies NL East | 88-74 | W1 | 88.0 | 100.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 4.5% | 2.0% |
| 🐘 Athletics AL West | 64-98 | L2 | 64.0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 🐍 Arizona Diamondbacks NL West | 86-76 | L2 | 86.0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 🐤 Baltimore Orioles AL East | 79-82 | L1 | 79.0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 🔴 Cincinnati Reds NL Central | 75-87 | L1 | 75.0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| ⛰️ Colorado Rockies NL West | 58-104 | L1 | 58.0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 🐅 Detroit Tigers AL Central | 76-86 | L1 | 76.0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 👑 Kansas City Royals AL Central | 69-93 | W1 | 69.0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 😇 Los Angeles Angels AL West | 62-100 | L2 | 62.0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 🐟 Miami Marlins NL East | 80-82 | W1 | 80.0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| ❄️ Minnesota Twins AL Central | 77-85 | W1 | 77.0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 🍎 New York Mets NL East | 74-88 | L1 | 74.0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 🏴☠️ Pittsburgh Pirates NL Central | 82-80 | W1 | 82.0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 🔱 Seattle Mariners AL West | 76-86 | W2 | 76.0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 🌉 San Francisco Giants NL West | 65-97 | L5 | 66.0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 🐦 St. Louis Cardinals NL Central | 77-85 | L4 | 77.0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| ⭐ Texas Rangers AL West | 80-82 | L1 | 80.0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 🍁 Toronto Blue Jays AL East | 79-83 | W1 | 79.0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 🏛️ Washington Nationals NL East | 77-85 | W1 | 77.0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Standings
Six divisions, two leagues.
American League
AL East
| 1 | ☀️ Tampa Bay Rays | 98-64 | 100.0% |
| 2 | 🎩 New York Yankees | 93-68 | 0.0% |
| 3 | 🧦 Boston Red Sox | 87-75 | 0.0% |
| 4 | 🐤 Baltimore Orioles | 79-82 | 0.0% |
| 5 | 🍁 Toronto Blue Jays | 79-83 | 0.0% |
AL Central
| 1 | 🛡️ Cleveland Guardians | 85-77 | 100.0% |
| 2 | ⚫ Chicago White Sox | 84-78 | 0.0% |
| 3 | ❄️ Minnesota Twins | 77-85 | 0.0% |
| 4 | 🐅 Detroit Tigers | 76-86 | 0.0% |
| 5 | 👑 Kansas City Royals | 69-93 | 0.0% |
AL West
| 1 | 🚀 Houston Astros | 81-81 | 100.0% |
| 2 | ⭐ Texas Rangers | 80-82 | 0.0% |
| 3 | 🔱 Seattle Mariners | 76-86 | 0.0% |
| 4 | 🐘 Athletics | 64-98 | 0.0% |
| 5 | 😇 Los Angeles Angels | 62-100 | 0.0% |
National League
NL East
| 1 | 🪓 Atlanta Braves | 94-68 | 100.0% |
| 2 | 🔔 Philadelphia Phillies | 88-74 | 0.0% |
| 3 | 🐟 Miami Marlins | 80-82 | 0.0% |
| 4 | 🏛️ Washington Nationals | 77-85 | 0.0% |
| 5 | 🍎 New York Mets | 74-88 | 0.0% |
NL Central
| 1 | 🍺 Milwaukee Brewers | 103-59 | 100.0% |
| 2 | 🐻 Chicago Cubs | 89-73 | 0.0% |
| 3 | 🏴☠️ Pittsburgh Pirates | 82-80 | 0.0% |
| 4 | 🐦 St. Louis Cardinals | 77-85 | 0.0% |
| 5 | 🔴 Cincinnati Reds | 75-87 | 0.0% |
NL West
| 1 | 🔵 Los Angeles Dodgers | 100-62 | 100.0% |
| 2 | 🌴 San Diego Padres | 91-71 | 0.0% |
| 3 | 🐍 Arizona Diamondbacks | 86-76 | 0.0% |
| 4 | 🌉 San Francisco Giants | 65-97 | 0.0% |
| 5 | ⛰️ Colorado Rockies | 58-104 | 0.0% |
Division % — 10,000 simulations · model pythagenpat+log5 v0.1 · 0 games remaining · source statsapi.mlb.com · run of October 15, 2026 · 22:30 UTC
Methodology after the signal
The model is pythagenpat + log5, v0.1.
The MLB desk simulates the rest of the 2026 season 10,000 times nightly. Team strength comes from run differential via pythagenpat; every remaining game is decided by Bill James's log5 rule, then division and bye tiebreakers follow MLB rules.
- Pythagenpat estimates a team’s true level from runs scored and allowed — steadier than the record alone.
- Log5 turns two strengths into a game-by-game win probability, across the 0 remaining games.
- Playoffs, division, bye, pennant and World Series are counted on the same simulations — the columns are mutually consistent.
- Data from statsapi.mlb.com, refreshed nightly; the displayed run is from October 15, 2026 · 22:30 UTC.