Who has the cleanest path to the Cup?
10,000 Monte Carlo simulations. Goalie volatility layer. Market gap detector. Team trend analysis.
Is the favorite actually built for the next round, or is the market wrong?
Current favorites — as of June 16, 2026
Cup favorite · EAST
🌀 Carolina Hurricanes
Final: 100% · Conf: 100%
Model: 100% · Market: 36.36% · ↑ +6.37 pts (7d)
G: Brandon Bussi · SV% 89.5 · HD SV% 81.6
Full Cup board — top 1 teams
Playoff field ranked by championship probability
Model: BSTS + Monte Carlo + GoalieLayer · 10,000 simulations
| Team | Cup% | Final% | Conf% | Market% | 7d | Goalie |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🌀 Carolina Hurricanes | 100% | 100% | 100% | 36.36% | +6.37 | Brandon Bussi · SV% 89.5 |
Model vs market — disagreement detector
Where the model and the market diverge most.
Model over market
🌀 Carolina Hurricanes
Model: 100% vs Market: 36.36%
Gap: +63.6 pts — BSTS sees more upside than the books
7-day risers
Teams gaining ground in the last week.
Riser · EAST
🌀 Carolina Hurricanes
Cup: 100% · 7d move: +6.37 pts
G: Brandon Bussi · HD SV% 81.6
Methodology after the signal
The model is EWMA game-log + GoalieLayer HDSV%.
The NHL desk runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations nightly. Team strength uses an exponentially weighted moving average on game-log data from Natural Stat Trick. The goalie layer adjusts each series result using high-danger save percentage (HDSV%) from the probable starter.
- EWMA game-log gives more weight to recent regular-season and playoff performance.
- GoalieLayer CORR ~0.55 with playoff series results — meaningful but not decisive.
- Market blend at α=0.65 pulls toward BSTS when market confidence is high.
- All gaps between model and market are surfaced as disagreement signals, not calls.