Sports Scope Track Record

Model activity

Simulations run

10K

per model run, BSTS + GoalieLayer

Teams tracked

playoff-eligible teams in the current bracket

Model version

1.2

Updated June 16, 2026

What Sports Scope covers

NHL Stanley Cup playoffs

Cup path probabilities.

A Bayesian structural time-series model (BSTS) combined with a goalie volatility layer (HDSV%) and 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations. The model tracks each team's path to the Stanley Cup with per-round probabilities updated after every series result.

Methodology

BSTS + GoalieLayer.

The model blends team-level EWMA game-log strength estimates with a goalie modifier derived from high-danger save percentage. Market signals from 2 books are blended in where available. No black-box inputs — every weight is documented.

Resolved calls

Each call is frozen from the git history that proves it was public before the result — model probability against the market at the same instant. Market reach is context, never a headline; sports and elections are counted separately.

Sports Scope

2 / 2resolved calls100% accuracy

2026 FIFA World Cup · Pre-tournament — before the first match ✓

2026 World Cup — pre-tournament favourite

Before a single match, Vote-Scope ranked Spain the most likely champion of 48 teams (7.43%).

Model 7.43%· market reach $6.22B

Spain won 1–0 over Argentina after extra time. ✓

2026 Stanley Cup · Final — series tied 2–2 ✓

2026 Stanley Cup — model vs market at 2–2

With the final tied 2–2, Vote-Scope gave Carolina 66.7% while the market saw a coin flip (~36%).

Model 66.68%·Market 36.36%edge +30.3%

Carolina won the Cup. The model beat the market. ✓