Southend East and Rochford
Westminster constituency · England · East of England
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives Reform UK a 82% chance of winning, with an average lead of 2.3 points.
Competitive. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 97%.
Compared with the average
| Reform UK | Labour | Conservative | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Southend East and Rochford | 28.2% | 26.2% | 24.4% | 11.5% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 23.1%+5.2 | 24.3%+1.9 | 20.4%+4.0 | 10.4%+1.1 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 98,864 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 40 |
| Employment rate | 82.2% |
Current member
Mr Bayo Alaba · Labour
Previous election (2024)
Labour won by 10.2 points.
Our current projection: Reform UK ahead by 2.3 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bayo Alaba Elected | Labour | 15,395 | 38.8 |
| Gavin Haran | Conservative | 11,368 | 28.7 |
| Leslie Lilley | Reform UK | 7,214 | 18.2 |
| Simon Cross | Green | 2,716 | 6.8 |
| James Allen | Lib Dems | 2,269 | 5.7 |
| Lee Clark | Other | 488 | 1.2 |
| Bianca Isherwood | Other | 206 | 0.5 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Southend West and Leigh Reform UK, toss-up
- Faversham and Mid Kent Reform UK, toss-up
- Sittingbourne and Sheppey Reform UK, safe seat
- Harwich and North Essex Conservative, toss-up
- Witham Conservative, toss-up
- Gillingham and Rainham Reform UK, toss-up
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated