Sittingbourne and Sheppey
Westminster constituency · England · South East
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives Reform UK a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 10.6 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| Reform UK | Conservative | Labour | Other | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sittingbourne and Sheppey | 35.5% | 24.9% | 18.2% | 9.6% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 23.1%+12.4 | 20.4%+4.4 | 24.3%−6.1 | 5.0%+4.6 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 114,441 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 39 |
| Employment rate | 69.5% |
Current member
Kevin McKenna · Labour
Previous election (2024)
Labour won by 0.9 points.
Our current projection: Reform UK ahead by 10.6 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin McKenna Elected | Labour | 11,919 | 29.1 |
| Aisha Cuthbert | Conservative | 11,564 | 28.2 |
| William Fotheringham-Bray | Reform UK | 10,512 | 25.6 |
| Mike Baldock | Other | 3,238 | 7.9 |
| Sam Banks | Green | 1,692 | 4.1 |
| Frances Kneller | Lib Dems | 1,321 | 3.2 |
| Matt Brown | Other | 529 | 1.3 |
| Mad Mike Young | Other | 223 | 0.5 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Faversham and Mid Kent Reform UK, toss-up
- Southend East and Rochford Reform UK, toss-up
- Canterbury Labour, safe seat
- Herne Bay and Sandwich Conservative, toss-up
- Ashford Reform UK, competitive
- Weald of Kent Conservative, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated