Weald of Kent
Westminster constituency · England · South East
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the Conservatives a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 9.1 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 1%.
Compared with the average
| Conservative | Reform UK | Labour | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Weald of Kent | 36.6% | 27.5% | 15.5% | 11.5% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 20.4%+16.2 | 23.1%+4.4 | 24.3%−8.8 | 10.4%+1.1 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 96,083 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 48 |
| Employment rate | 84.8% |
Current member
Katie Lam · Conservative
Previous election (2024)
The Conservatives won by 16.6 points.
Our current projection: the Conservatives ahead by 9.1 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Katie Lam Elected | Conservative | 20,202 | 39.8 |
| Lenny Rolles | Labour | 11,780 | 23.2 |
| Daniel Kersten | Reform UK | 10,208 | 20.1 |
| Kate Walder | Green | 4,547 | 9.0 |
| John Howson | Lib Dems | 3,975 | 7.8 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Hastings and Rye Labour, toss-up
- Faversham and Mid Kent Reform UK, toss-up
- Sittingbourne and Sheppey Reform UK, safe seat
- Gillingham and Rainham Reform UK, toss-up
- Ashford Reform UK, competitive
- Maidstone and Malling Conservative, toss-up
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated