Hastings and Rye
Westminster constituency · England · South East
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives Labour a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 3.4 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 79%.
Compared with the average
| Labour | Reform UK | Conservative | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hastings and Rye | 29.8% | 26.4% | 19.9% | 14.9% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 24.3%+5.6 | 23.1%+3.4 | 20.4%−0.5 | 10.4%+4.5 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 104,498 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 45 |
| Employment rate | 70.0% |
Current member
Helena Dollimore · Labour
Previous election (2024)
Labour won by 18.8 points.
Our current projection: Labour ahead by 3.4 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Helena Dollimore Elected | Labour | 19,134 | 41.6 |
| Sally-Ann Hart | Conservative | 10,481 | 22.8 |
| Lucian Fernando | Reform UK | 7,401 | 16.1 |
| Becca Horn | Green | 5,761 | 12.5 |
| Guy Harris | Lib Dems | 2,586 | 5.6 |
| Phil Colley | Other | 362 | 0.8 |
| Nicolas Davies | Other | 136 | 0.3 |
| Paul Crosland | Other | 129 | 0.3 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Weald of Kent Conservative, safe seat
- Bexhill and Battle Conservative, toss-up
- Ashford Reform UK, competitive
- Tunbridge Wells Lib Dems, safe seat
- Faversham and Mid Kent Reform UK, toss-up
- Folkestone and Hythe Reform UK, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated