Folkestone and Hythe
Westminster constituency · England · South East
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives Reform UK a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 9.8 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 1%.
Compared with the average
| Reform UK | Conservative | Labour | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Folkestone and Hythe | 33.7% | 23.4% | 22.4% | 12.0% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 23.1%+10.7 | 20.4%+3.0 | 24.3%−1.9 | 10.4%+1.6 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 92,073 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 47 |
| Employment rate | 68.9% |
Current member
Tony Vaughan · Labour
Previous election (2024)
Labour won by 8.6 points.
Our current projection: Reform UK ahead by 9.8 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tony Vaughan Elected | Labour | 15,020 | 34.7 |
| Damian Collins | Conservative | 11,291 | 26.1 |
| Bill Wright | Reform UK | 10,685 | 24.7 |
| Marianne Brett | Green | 3,954 | 9.1 |
| Larry Ngan | Lib Dems | 1,736 | 4.0 |
| Momtaz Khanom | Other | 249 | 0.6 |
| David Allen | Other | 240 | 0.6 |
| Andy Thomas | Other | 71 | 0.2 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Dover and Deal Reform UK, competitive
- Ashford Reform UK, competitive
- Canterbury Labour, safe seat
- Herne Bay and Sandwich Conservative, toss-up
- East Thanet Reform UK, toss-up
- Sittingbourne and Sheppey Reform UK, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated