Canterbury
Westminster constituency · England · South East
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives Labour a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 9.5 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| Labour | Reform UK | Conservative | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Canterbury | 32.0% | 22.4% | 20.1% | 16.3% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 24.3%+7.7 | 23.1%−0.7 | 20.4%−0.3 | 10.4%+5.9 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 107,264 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 38 |
| Employment rate | 63.3% |
Current member
Rosie Duffield · Independent
Previous election (2024)
Labour won by 18.3 points.
Our current projection: Labour ahead by 9.5 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rosie Duffield Elected | Labour | 19,531 | 41.4 |
| Louise Harvey-Quirke | Conservative | 10,878 | 23.0 |
| Bridget Porter | Reform UK | 6,805 | 14.4 |
| Henry Stanton | Green | 5,920 | 12.5 |
| Russ Timpson | Lib Dems | 3,812 | 8.1 |
| Luke Buchanan-Hodgman | Other | 285 | 0.6 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Herne Bay and Sandwich Conservative, toss-up
- Ashford Reform UK, competitive
- Dover and Deal Reform UK, competitive
- Folkestone and Hythe Reform UK, safe seat
- Sittingbourne and Sheppey Reform UK, safe seat
- Faversham and Mid Kent Reform UK, toss-up
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated