Dover and Deal
Westminster constituency · England · South East
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives Reform UK a 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 6.2 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 25%.
Compared with the average
| Reform UK | Labour | Conservative | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dover and Deal | 33.2% | 27.0% | 19.4% | 10.5% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 23.1%+10.2 | 24.3%+2.8 | 20.4%−1.0 | 10.4%+0.1 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 103,887 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 45 |
| Employment rate | 75.4% |
Current member
Mike Tapp · Labour
Previous election (2024)
Labour won by 15.9 points.
Our current projection: Reform UK ahead by 6.2 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Tapp Elected | Labour | 18,940 | 39.6 |
| Howard Cox | Reform UK | 11,355 | 23.8 |
| Stephen James | Conservative | 10,370 | 21.7 |
| Christine Oliver | Green | 3,106 | 6.5 |
| Penelope James | Lib Dems | 2,595 | 5.4 |
| Geoffrey Lymer | Other | 485 | 1.0 |
| Ash Payne | Other | 369 | 0.8 |
| Steve Laws | Other | 185 | 0.4 |
| Sylvia Petersen | Other | 168 | 0.4 |
| Chris Tough | Other | 104 | 0.2 |
| Colin Tasker | Other | 98 | 0.2 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Folkestone and Hythe Reform UK, safe seat
- East Thanet Reform UK, toss-up
- Herne Bay and Sandwich Conservative, toss-up
- Canterbury Labour, safe seat
- Ashford Reform UK, competitive
- Sittingbourne and Sheppey Reform UK, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated