Herne Bay and Sandwich
Westminster constituency · England · South East
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the Conservatives a 82% chance of winning, with an average lead of 2.1 points.
Competitive. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 96%.
Compared with the average
| Conservative | Reform UK | Labour | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Herne Bay and Sandwich | 31.8% | 30.0% | 20.7% | 10.2% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 20.4%+11.3 | 23.1%+6.9 | 24.3%−3.6 | 10.4%−0.2 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 99,257 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 49 |
| Employment rate | 77.1% |
Current member
Sir Roger Gale · Conservative
Previous election (2024)
The Conservatives won by 5.1 points.
Our current projection: the Conservatives ahead by 2.1 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Roger Gale Elected | Conservative | 17,243 | 35.3 |
| Helen Whitehead | Labour | 14,744 | 30.2 |
| Amelia Randall | Reform UK | 10,602 | 21.7 |
| Thea Barrett | Green | 3,529 | 7.2 |
| Angie Curwen | Lib Dems | 2,709 | 5.5 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Canterbury Labour, safe seat
- Ashford Reform UK, competitive
- Dover and Deal Reform UK, competitive
- Folkestone and Hythe Reform UK, safe seat
- East Thanet Reform UK, toss-up
- Sittingbourne and Sheppey Reform UK, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated