Ashford
Westminster constituency · England · South East
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives Reform UK a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 6.5 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 21%.
Compared with the average
| Reform UK | Conservative | Labour | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ashford | 31.9% | 25.3% | 20.8% | 12.7% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 23.1%+8.8 | 20.4%+4.9 | 24.3%−3.5 | 10.4%+2.3 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 108,652 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 39 |
| Employment rate | 77.1% |
Current member
Sojan Joseph · Labour
Previous election (2024)
Labour won by 3.8 points.
Our current projection: Reform UK ahead by 6.5 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sojan Joseph Elected | Labour | 15,262 | 32.5 |
| Damian Green | Conservative | 13,483 | 28.7 |
| Tristram Kennedy Harper | Reform UK | 10,141 | 21.6 |
| Mandy Rossi | Green | 4,355 | 9.3 |
| Adam Rowledge | Lib Dems | 2,445 | 5.2 |
| James Ransley | Other | 1,289 | 2.7 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Canterbury Labour, safe seat
- Folkestone and Hythe Reform UK, safe seat
- Herne Bay and Sandwich Conservative, toss-up
- Sittingbourne and Sheppey Reform UK, safe seat
- Dover and Deal Reform UK, competitive
- Weald of Kent Conservative, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated