East Thanet
Westminster constituency · England · South East
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives Reform UK a 89% chance of winning, with an average lead of 3.0 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 88%.
Compared with the average
| Reform UK | Labour | Conservative | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| East Thanet | 30.5% | 27.8% | 20.6% | 13.6% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 23.1%+7.5 | 24.3%+3.6 | 20.4%+0.2 | 10.4%+3.2 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 105,304 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 43 |
| Employment rate | 67.5% |
Current member
Ms Polly Billington · Labour
Previous election (2024)
Labour won by 16.3 points.
Our current projection: Reform UK ahead by 3.0 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Polly Billington Elected | Labour | 17,054 | 39.9 |
| Helen Harrison | Conservative | 10,083 | 23.6 |
| Paul Webb | Reform UK | 8,591 | 20.1 |
| Steve Roberts | Green | 4,590 | 10.8 |
| Jai Singh | Lib Dems | 1,365 | 3.2 |
| Grahame Birchall | Other | 563 | 1.3 |
| Paul Holton | Other | 369 | 0.9 |
| Mo Shafaei | Other | 98 | 0.2 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Dover and Deal Reform UK, competitive
- Herne Bay and Sandwich Conservative, toss-up
- Canterbury Labour, safe seat
- Folkestone and Hythe Reform UK, safe seat
- Ashford Reform UK, competitive
- Sittingbourne and Sheppey Reform UK, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated