Bexhill and Battle
Westminster constituency · England · South East
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the Conservatives a 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 4.5 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 62%.
Compared with the average
| Conservative | Reform UK | Labour | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bexhill and Battle | 30.6% | 26.2% | 19.8% | 9.6% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 20.4%+10.2 | 23.1%+3.1 | 24.3%−4.4 | 10.4%−0.8 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 90,339 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 53 |
| Employment rate | 76.5% |
Current member
Dr Kieran Mullan · Conservative
Previous election (2024)
The Conservatives won by 5.6 points.
Our current projection: the Conservatives ahead by 4.5 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kieran Mullan Elected | Conservative | 16,186 | 33.9 |
| Christine Bayliss | Labour | 13,529 | 28.3 |
| Ian Gribbin | Reform UK | 7,929 | 16.6 |
| Becky Jones | Lib Dems | 3,473 | 7.3 |
| Jonathan Kent | Green | 2,972 | 6.2 |
| Abul Azad | Other | 2,206 | 4.6 |
| Jeff Newnham | Other | 769 | 1.6 |
| Julia Long | Other | 332 | 0.7 |
| Nigel Jacklin | Other | 210 | 0.4 |
| Colin Sullivan | Other | 144 | 0.3 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Tunbridge Wells Lib Dems, safe seat
- Eastbourne Lib Dems, safe seat
- Sussex Weald Conservative, toss-up
- Hastings and Rye Labour, toss-up
- Weald of Kent Conservative, safe seat
- Maidstone and Malling Conservative, toss-up
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated