Sussex Weald
Westminster constituency · England · South East
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the Conservatives a 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 4.5 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 61%.
Compared with the average
| Conservative | Reform UK | Lib Dems | Labour | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sussex Weald | 30.4% | 25.9% | 17.7% | 10.7% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 20.4%+10.0 | 23.1%+2.8 | 10.3%+7.4 | 24.3%−13.6 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 92,620 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 48 |
| Employment rate | 79.4% |
Current member
Ms Nusrat Ghani · Conservative
Previous election (2024)
The Conservatives won by 13.9 points.
Our current projection: the Conservatives ahead by 4.5 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nus Ghani Elected | Conservative | 16,758 | 34.1 |
| Danielle Newson | Lib Dems | 9,916 | 20.2 |
| David Morgan | Reform UK | 8,920 | 18.1 |
| Dipesh Patel | Labour | 8,239 | 16.8 |
| Austin Henderson | Green | 3,762 | 7.7 |
| Shaun Bowler | Other | 953 | 1.9 |
| Stephen Gander | Other | 319 | 0.7 |
| Dominie Stemp | Other | 156 | 0.3 |
| Chris Magness | Other | 152 | 0.3 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Tunbridge Wells Lib Dems, safe seat
- Eastbourne Lib Dems, safe seat
- East Grinstead and Uckfield Conservative, safe seat
- Bexhill and Battle Conservative, toss-up
- Tonbridge Conservative, safe seat
- Lewes Lib Dems, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated