East Grinstead and Uckfield
Westminster constituency · England · South East
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the Conservatives a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 16.2 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| Conservative | Lib Dems | Labour | Reform UK | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| East Grinstead and Uckfield | 34.2% | 18.0% | 14.3% | 13.3% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 20.4%+13.8 | 10.3%+7.7 | 24.3%−9.9 | 23.1%−9.7 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 97,476 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 46 |
| Employment rate | 83.3% |
Current member
Mims Davies · Conservative
Previous election (2024)
The Conservatives won by 16.8 points.
Our current projection: the Conservatives ahead by 16.2 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mims Davies Elected | Conservative | 19,319 | 38.3 |
| Benedict Dempsey | Lib Dems | 10,839 | 21.5 |
| Ben Cox | Labour | 10,440 | 20.7 |
| Christina Coleman | Green | 5,277 | 10.5 |
| Ian Gibson | Other | 2,482 | 4.9 |
| William Highton | Other | 2,036 | 4.0 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Lewes Lib Dems, safe seat
- Brighton Kemptown and Peacehaven Labour, safe seat
- Brighton Pavilion Green, safe seat
- Mid Sussex Lib Dems, safe seat
- Hove and Portslade Labour, safe seat
- Sussex Weald Conservative, toss-up
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated