Brighton Pavilion
Westminster constituency · England · South East
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the Green Party a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 34.7 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| Green | Labour | Reform UK | Conservative | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brighton Pavilion | 55.3% | 20.6% | 12.1% | 6.9% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 10.4%+44.9 | 24.3%−3.7 | 23.1%−11.0 | 20.4%−13.5 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 103,257 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 34 |
| Employment rate | 80.3% |
Current member
Siân Berry · Green
Previous election (2024)
The Green Party won by 27.3 points.
Our current projection: the Green Party ahead by 34.7 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Siân Berry Elected | Green | 28,809 | 55.0 |
| Tom Gray | Labour | 14,519 | 27.7 |
| Sarah Webster | Conservative | 3,975 | 7.6 |
| Mark Mulvihill | Reform UK | 2,836 | 5.4 |
| Ashley Ridley | Lib Dems | 1,604 | 3.1 |
| Citizen Skwith | Other | 257 | 0.5 |
| Carl Buckfield | Other | 184 | 0.4 |
| Steve AI | Other | 179 | 0.3 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Hove and Portslade Labour, safe seat
- Brighton Kemptown and Peacehaven Labour, safe seat
- Mid Sussex Lib Dems, safe seat
- East Worthing and Shoreham Labour, competitive
- East Grinstead and Uckfield Conservative, safe seat
- Lewes Lib Dems, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated