Hove and Portslade
Westminster constituency · England · South East
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives Labour a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 21.9 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| Labour | Green | Reform UK | Conservative | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hove and Portslade | 41.5% | 19.6% | 15.1% | 12.1% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 24.3%+17.2 | 10.4%+9.2 | 23.1%−7.9 | 20.4%−8.4 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 101,839 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 41 |
| Employment rate | 75.5% |
Current member
Peter Kyle · Labour
Previous election (2024)
Labour won by 38.1 points.
Our current projection: Labour ahead by 21.9 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Peter Kyle Elected | Labour | 27,209 | 52.4 |
| Sophie Broadbent | Green | 7,418 | 14.3 |
| Carline Deal | Conservative | 6,630 | 12.8 |
| Martin Hess | Reform UK | 4,558 | 8.8 |
| Tanushka Marah | Other | 3,048 | 5.9 |
| Michael Wang | Lib Dems | 3,046 | 5.9 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- East Worthing and Shoreham Labour, competitive
- Brighton Pavilion Green, safe seat
- Brighton Kemptown and Peacehaven Labour, safe seat
- Mid Sussex Lib Dems, safe seat
- East Grinstead and Uckfield Conservative, safe seat
- Horsham Lib Dems, toss-up
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated