East Worthing and Shoreham
Westminster constituency · England · South East
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives Labour a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 6.7 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 21%.
Compared with the average
| Labour | Reform UK | Conservative | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| East Worthing and Shoreham | 32.0% | 25.2% | 22.3% | 10.4% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 24.3%+7.7 | 23.1%+2.2 | 20.4%+1.9 | 10.4% |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 99,910 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 45 |
| Employment rate | 82.3% |
Current member
Tom Rutland · Labour
Previous election (2024)
Labour won by 19.4 points.
Our current projection: Labour ahead by 6.7 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Rutland Elected | Labour | 22,120 | 45.1 |
| Leila Williams | Conservative | 12,601 | 25.7 |
| Lionel Harman | Reform UK | 7,169 | 14.6 |
| Debbie Woudman | Green | 3,246 | 6.6 |
| David Batchelor | Lib Dems | 3,180 | 6.5 |
| Frank Ward | Other | 320 | 0.7 |
| John Greenshields | Other | 273 | 0.6 |
| Ivana Forman | Other | 169 | 0.3 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Hove and Portslade Labour, safe seat
- Brighton Pavilion Green, safe seat
- Brighton Kemptown and Peacehaven Labour, safe seat
- Mid Sussex Lib Dems, safe seat
- Worthing West Conservative, toss-up
- Horsham Lib Dems, toss-up
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated