Horsham
Westminster constituency · England · South East
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the Lib Dems a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 5.3 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 44%.
Compared with the average
| Lib Dems | Conservative | Reform UK | Labour | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Horsham | 34.9% | 29.6% | 19.5% | 6.8% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 10.3%+24.6 | 20.4%+9.2 | 23.1%−3.6 | 24.3%−17.4 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 105,494 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 43 |
| Employment rate | 82.9% |
Current member
John Milne · Lib Dems
Previous election (2024)
The Lib Dems won by 4.5 points.
Our current projection: the Lib Dems ahead by 5.3 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| John Milne Elected | Lib Dems | 21,632 | 39.0 |
| Jeremy Quin | Conservative | 19,115 | 34.4 |
| Hugo Miller | Reform UK | 6,116 | 11.0 |
| James Field | Labour | 5,979 | 10.8 |
| Catherine Ross | Green | 2,137 | 3.9 |
| Jim Duggan | Other | 276 | 0.5 |
| Paul Abbott | Other | 244 | 0.4 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Crawley Labour, toss-up
- Dorking and Horley Lib Dems, safe seat
- Worthing West Conservative, toss-up
- Mid Sussex Lib Dems, safe seat
- East Worthing and Shoreham Labour, competitive
- Hove and Portslade Labour, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated