Dorking and Horley
Westminster constituency · England · South East
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the Lib Dems a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 11.6 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| Lib Dems | Conservative | Reform UK | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dorking and Horley | 38.1% | 26.5% | 21.7% | 7.3% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 10.3%+27.8 | 20.4%+6.1 | 23.1%−1.4 | 10.4%−3.1 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 94,882 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 45 |
| Employment rate | 75.2% |
Current member
Chris Coghlan · Lib Dems
Previous election (2024)
The Lib Dems won by 10.8 points.
Our current projection: the Lib Dems ahead by 11.6 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Coghlan Elected | Lib Dems | 20,921 | 41.9 |
| Marisa Heath | Conservative | 15,530 | 31.1 |
| Craig Young | Reform UK | 6,898 | 13.8 |
| Nadia Burrell | Labour | 4,053 | 8.1 |
| Lisa Scott | Green | 2,563 | 5.1 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Epsom and Ewell Lib Dems, competitive
- Crawley Labour, toss-up
- Reigate Conservative, safe seat
- Kingston and Surbiton Lib Dems, safe seat
- Esher and Walton Lib Dems, safe seat
- Horsham Lib Dems, toss-up
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated