Reigate
Westminster constituency · England · South East
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the Conservatives a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 11.6 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| Conservative | Reform UK | Labour | Lib Dems | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reigate | 33.2% | 21.0% | 20.7% | 12.3% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 20.4%+12.8 | 23.1%−2.1 | 24.3%−3.6 | 10.3%+2.1 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 110,170 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 41 |
| Employment rate | 71.4% |
Current member
Rebecca Paul · Conservative
Previous election (2024)
The Conservatives won by 6.0 points.
Our current projection: the Conservatives ahead by 11.6 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rebecca Paul Elected | Conservative | 18,822 | 35.4 |
| Stuart Brady | Labour | 15,635 | 29.4 |
| Joseph Fox | Reform UK | 7,240 | 13.6 |
| Mark Johnston | Lib Dems | 6,773 | 12.7 |
| Jonathan Essex | Green | 4,691 | 8.8 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Sutton and Cheam Lib Dems, safe seat
- Carshalton and Wallington Lib Dems, safe seat
- Epsom and Ewell Lib Dems, competitive
- Croydon South Conservative, safe seat
- Mitcham and Morden Labour, safe seat
- East Surrey Conservative, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated