Carshalton and Wallington
Westminster constituency · England · London
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the Lib Dems a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 18.2 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| Lib Dems | Conservative | Reform UK | Labour | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carshalton and Wallington | 40.5% | 22.2% | 19.9% | 8.2% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 10.3%+30.2 | 20.4%+1.8 | 23.1%−3.2 | 24.3%−16.1 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 105,051 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 39 |
| Employment rate | 66.0% |
Current member
Bobby Dean · Lib Dems
Previous election (2024)
The Lib Dems won by 16.9 points.
Our current projection: the Lib Dems ahead by 18.2 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bobby Dean Elected | Lib Dems | 20,126 | 43.1 |
| Elliot Colburn | Conservative | 12,221 | 26.2 |
| Hersh Thaker | Labour | 6,108 | 13.1 |
| Elizabeth Cooper | Reform UK | 5,941 | 12.7 |
| Tracey Hague | Green | 1,517 | 3.3 |
| Atif Abdul Rashid | Other | 441 | 0.9 |
| Ashley Dickenson | Other | 231 | 0.5 |
| Steve Kelleher | Other | 85 | 0.2 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Croydon West Labour, safe seat
- Mitcham and Morden Labour, safe seat
- Croydon South Conservative, safe seat
- Sutton and Cheam Lib Dems, safe seat
- Streatham and Croydon North Labour, safe seat
- Tooting Labour, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated