Sutton and Cheam
Westminster constituency · England · London
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the Lib Dems a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 9.1 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 1%.
Compared with the average
| Lib Dems | Conservative | Reform UK | Labour | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sutton and Cheam | 34.6% | 25.6% | 19.1% | 11.6% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 10.3%+24.3 | 20.4%+5.2 | 23.1%−4.0 | 24.3%−12.7 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 105,002 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 40 |
| Employment rate | 79.4% |
Current member
Luke Taylor · Lib Dems
Previous election (2024)
The Lib Dems won by 8.0 points.
Our current projection: the Lib Dems ahead by 9.1 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Luke Taylor Elected | Lib Dems | 17,576 | 36.9 |
| Tom Drummond | Conservative | 13,775 | 28.9 |
| Chrisni Reshekaron | Labour | 8,430 | 17.7 |
| Ryan Powell | Reform UK | 5,787 | 12.2 |
| Aasha Anam | Green | 1,721 | 3.6 |
| Hamilton Action-Man Kingsley | Other | 317 | 0.7 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Wimbledon Lib Dems, safe seat
- Mitcham and Morden Labour, safe seat
- Carshalton and Wallington Lib Dems, safe seat
- Kingston and Surbiton Lib Dems, safe seat
- Tooting Labour, safe seat
- Epsom and Ewell Lib Dems, competitive
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated