Epsom and Ewell
Westminster constituency · England · South East
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the Lib Dems a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 6.5 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 19%.
Compared with the average
| Lib Dems | Conservative | Reform UK | Labour | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Epsom and Ewell | 34.8% | 28.3% | 16.7% | 10.6% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 10.3%+24.5 | 20.4%+7.8 | 23.1%−6.3 | 24.3%−13.6 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 108,275 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 42 |
| Employment rate | 86.4% |
Current member
Helen Maguire · Lib Dems
Previous election (2024)
The Lib Dems won by 6.8 points.
Our current projection: the Lib Dems ahead by 6.5 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Helen Maguire Elected | Lib Dems | 20,674 | 37.9 |
| Mhairi Fraser | Conservative | 16,988 | 31.2 |
| Mark Todd | Labour | 8,325 | 15.3 |
| Mayuran Senthilnathan | Reform UK | 5,795 | 10.6 |
| Stephen McKenna | Green | 1,745 | 3.2 |
| Gina Miller | Other | 845 | 1.6 |
| Damon Young | Other | 153 | 0.3 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Kingston and Surbiton Lib Dems, safe seat
- Sutton and Cheam Lib Dems, safe seat
- Reigate Conservative, safe seat
- Esher and Walton Lib Dems, safe seat
- Wimbledon Lib Dems, safe seat
- Dorking and Horley Lib Dems, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated