Esher and Walton
Westminster constituency · England · South East
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the Lib Dems a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 20.5 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| Lib Dems | Conservative | Reform UK | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Esher and Walton | 47.4% | 26.9% | 14.5% | 5.3% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 10.3%+37.1 | 20.4%+6.5 | 23.1%−8.5 | 10.4%−5.1 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 104,341 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 42 |
| Employment rate | 77.8% |
Current member
Monica Harding · Lib Dems
Previous election (2024)
The Lib Dems won by 22.3 points.
Our current projection: the Lib Dems ahead by 20.5 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Monica Harding Elected | Lib Dems | 28,315 | 52.6 |
| John Cope | Conservative | 16,312 | 30.3 |
| Alastair Gray | Reform UK | 4,777 | 8.9 |
| Yoel Gordon | Labour | 2,846 | 5.3 |
| Maciej Pawlik | Green | 1,396 | 2.6 |
| Richard Bateson | Other | 234 | 0.4 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Twickenham Lib Dems, safe seat
- Feltham and Heston Labour, safe seat
- Runnymede and Weybridge Conservative, safe seat
- Kingston and Surbiton Lib Dems, safe seat
- Spelthorne Conservative, toss-up
- Epsom and Ewell Lib Dems, competitive
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated