Runnymede and Weybridge
Westminster constituency · England · South East
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the Conservatives a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 14.2 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| Conservative | Reform UK | Lib Dems | Labour | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Runnymede and Weybridge | 35.2% | 20.7% | 20.1% | 13.9% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 20.4%+14.8 | 23.1%−2.4 | 10.3%+9.8 | 24.3%−10.3 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 106,192 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 42 |
| Employment rate | 83.5% |
Current member
Dr Ben Spencer · Conservative
Previous election (2024)
The Conservatives won by 15.8 points.
Our current projection: the Conservatives ahead by 14.2 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Spencer Elected | Conservative | 18,442 | 38.2 |
| Ellen Nicholson | Lib Dems | 10,815 | 22.4 |
| Robert King | Labour | 9,963 | 20.7 |
| Stewart Mackay | Reform UK | 6,419 | 13.3 |
| Steven Ringham | Green | 1,954 | 4.1 |
| Michael Cressey | Other | 518 | 1.1 |
| Nicholas Wood | Other | 142 | 0.3 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Spelthorne Conservative, toss-up
- Esher and Walton Lib Dems, safe seat
- Woking Lib Dems, safe seat
- Feltham and Heston Labour, safe seat
- Guildford Lib Dems, safe seat
- Hayes and Harlington Labour, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated