Guildford
Westminster constituency · England · South East
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the Lib Dems a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 16.7 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| Lib Dems | Conservative | Reform UK | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Guildford | 42.8% | 26.1% | 15.8% | 8.1% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 10.3%+32.5 | 20.4%+5.6 | 23.1%−7.3 | 10.4%−2.3 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 103,176 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 38 |
| Employment rate | 84.3% |
Current member
Zöe Franklin · Lib Dems
Previous election (2024)
The Lib Dems won by 17.5 points.
Our current projection: the Lib Dems ahead by 16.7 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Zöe Franklin Elected | Lib Dems | 22,937 | 47.5 |
| Angela Richardson | Conservative | 14,508 | 30.0 |
| Dennis Saunders | Reform UK | 4,395 | 9.1 |
| Sarah Gillinson | Labour | 3,931 | 8.1 |
| Sam Peters | Green | 2,268 | 4.7 |
| John Morris | Other | 255 | 0.5 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Woking Lib Dems, safe seat
- Runnymede and Weybridge Conservative, safe seat
- Godalming and Ash Conservative, toss-up
- Surrey Heath Lib Dems, safe seat
- Spelthorne Conservative, toss-up
- Esher and Walton Lib Dems, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated