Surrey Heath
Westminster constituency · England · South East
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the Lib Dems a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 12.5 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| Lib Dems | Conservative | Reform UK | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Surrey Heath | 40.6% | 28.1% | 19.9% | 5.2% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 10.3%+30.3 | 20.4%+7.7 | 23.1%−3.1 | 10.4%−5.2 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 98,933 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 43 |
| Employment rate | 85.9% |
Current member
Dr Al Pinkerton · Lib Dems
Previous election (2024)
The Lib Dems won by 11.8 points.
Our current projection: the Lib Dems ahead by 12.5 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Al Pinkerton Elected | Lib Dems | 21,387 | 44.8 |
| Ed McGuinness | Conservative | 15,747 | 32.9 |
| Sam Goggin | Reform UK | 6,252 | 13.1 |
| Jessica Hammersley-Rich | Labour | 3,148 | 6.6 |
| Jon Campbell | Green | 1,162 | 2.4 |
| Elizabeth Wallitt | Other | 92 | 0.2 |
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated