Aldershot
Westminster constituency · England · South East
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives Reform UK a 94% chance of winning, with an average lead of 3.1 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 85%.
Compared with the average
| Reform UK | Conservative | Labour | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aldershot | 29.0% | 25.3% | 24.7% | 9.3% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 23.1%+5.9 | 20.4%+4.9 | 24.3%+0.4 | 10.4%−1.1 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 119,256 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 38 |
| Employment rate | 84.8% |
Current member
Alex Baker · Labour
Previous election (2024)
Labour won by 11.7 points.
Our current projection: Reform UK ahead by 3.1 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Baker Elected | Labour | 19,764 | 40.7 |
| Leo Docherty | Conservative | 14,081 | 29.0 |
| Trevor Lloyd-Jones | Reform UK | 8,210 | 16.9 |
| Paul Harris | Lib Dems | 4,052 | 8.3 |
| Ed Neville | Green | 2,155 | 4.4 |
| Steve James-Bailey | Other | 282 | 0.6 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Bracknell Conservative, toss-up
- Surrey Heath Lib Dems, safe seat
- Farnham and Bordon Conservative, toss-up
- Wokingham Lib Dems, safe seat
- Maidenhead Lib Dems, safe seat
- North East Hampshire Lib Dems, toss-up
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated