Maidenhead
Westminster constituency · England · South East
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the Lib Dems a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 7.8 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 5%.
Compared with the average
| Lib Dems | Conservative | Reform UK | Labour | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maidenhead | 39.6% | 31.8% | 10.3% | 7.1% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 10.3%+29.4 | 20.4%+11.4 | 23.1%−12.7 | 24.3%−17.2 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 106,091 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 42 |
| Employment rate | 81.7% |
Current member
Mr Joshua Reynolds · Lib Dems
Previous election (2024)
The Lib Dems won by 5.9 points.
Our current projection: the Lib Dems ahead by 7.8 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Joshua Reynolds Elected | Lib Dems | 21,895 | 43.5 |
| Tania Mathias | Conservative | 18,932 | 37.6 |
| Jo Smith | Labour | 5,766 | 11.5 |
| Andrew Cooney | Green | 1,996 | 4.0 |
| George Wright | Other | 791 | 1.6 |
| Tim Burt | Other | 518 | 1.0 |
| Qazi Irshad | Other | 431 | 0.9 |
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated