Wokingham
Westminster constituency · England · South East
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the Lib Dems a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 14.2 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| Lib Dems | Conservative | Reform UK | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wokingham | 43.0% | 28.8% | 15.9% | 6.4% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 10.3%+32.7 | 20.4%+8.4 | 23.1%−7.2 | 10.4%−4.0 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 100,084 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 42 |
| Employment rate | 75.6% |
Current member
Clive Jones · Lib Dems
Previous election (2024)
The Lib Dems won by 15.5 points.
Our current projection: the Lib Dems ahead by 14.2 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Clive Jones Elected | Lib Dems | 25,743 | 47.7 |
| Lucy Demery | Conservative | 17,398 | 32.2 |
| Colin Wright | Reform UK | 5,274 | 9.8 |
| Monica Hamidi | Labour | 3,631 | 6.7 |
| Merv Boniface | Green | 1,953 | 3.6 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Earley and Woodley Conservative, toss-up
- Reading Central Labour, safe seat
- Bracknell Conservative, toss-up
- Maidenhead Lib Dems, safe seat
- North East Hampshire Lib Dems, toss-up
- Aldershot Reform UK, toss-up
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated