North East Hampshire
Westminster constituency · England · South East
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the Lib Dems a 79% chance of winning, with an average lead of 1.8 points.
Competitive. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 98%.
Compared with the average
| Lib Dems | Conservative | Reform UK | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| North East Hampshire | 34.4% | 33.0% | 18.6% | 5.6% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 10.3%+24.1 | 20.4%+12.6 | 23.1%−4.4 | 10.4%−4.8 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 102,335 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 44 |
| Employment rate | 83.4% |
Current member
Alex Brewer · Lib Dems
Previous election (2024)
The Lib Dems won by 1.1 points.
Our current projection: the Lib Dems ahead by 1.8 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Brewer Elected | Lib Dems | 21,178 | 38.1 |
| Ranil Jayawardena | Conservative | 20,544 | 37.0 |
| Paul Morton | Reform UK | 6,673 | 12.0 |
| Bradley Phillips | Labour | 5,057 | 9.1 |
| Mohamed Miah | Green | 1,425 | 2.6 |
| Howling (Alan) Hope | Other | 340 | 0.6 |
| Duncan Stone | Other | 274 | 0.5 |
| Alex Zychowski | Other | 69 | 0.1 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Earley and Woodley Conservative, toss-up
- Basingstoke Labour, toss-up
- Wokingham Lib Dems, safe seat
- Reading Central Labour, safe seat
- Aldershot Reform UK, toss-up
- East Hampshire Conservative, toss-up
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated