East Hampshire
Westminster constituency · England · South East
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the Conservatives a 96% chance of winning, with an average lead of 3.0 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 89%.
Compared with the average
| Conservative | Lib Dems | Reform UK | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| East Hampshire | 33.5% | 30.6% | 19.5% | 7.9% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 20.4%+13.1 | 10.3%+20.3 | 23.1%−3.5 | 10.4%−2.5 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 91,757 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 48 |
| Employment rate | 77.5% |
Current member
Damian Hinds · Conservative
Previous election (2024)
The Conservatives won by 2.6 points.
Our current projection: the Conservatives ahead by 3.0 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Damian Hinds Elected | Conservative | 18,509 | 37.0 |
| Dominic Martin | Lib Dems | 17,234 | 34.5 |
| Matthew Kellermann | Reform UK | 6,476 | 12.9 |
| Lucy Sims | Labour | 4,867 | 9.7 |
| Richard Knight | Green | 2,404 | 4.8 |
| Jim Makin | Other | 364 | 0.7 |
| Sara Smith | Other | 152 | 0.3 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- North East Hampshire Lib Dems, toss-up
- Farnham and Bordon Conservative, toss-up
- Basingstoke Labour, toss-up
- Winchester Lib Dems, safe seat
- Fareham and Waterlooville Conservative, toss-up
- Havant Reform UK, toss-up
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated