Basingstoke
Westminster constituency · England · South East
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives Labour a 86% chance of winning, with an average lead of 2.5 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 88%.
Compared with the average
| Labour | Conservative | Reform UK | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Basingstoke | 28.4% | 26.1% | 23.2% | 12.0% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 24.3%+4.1 | 20.4%+5.6 | 23.1%+0.2 | 10.4%+1.6 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 111,647 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 39 |
| Employment rate | 75.3% |
Current member
Luke Murphy · Labour
Previous election (2024)
Labour won by 13.2 points.
Our current projection: Labour ahead by 2.5 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Luke Murphy Elected | Labour | 20,922 | 42.7 |
| Maria Miller | Conservative | 14,438 | 29.5 |
| Ray Saint | Reform UK | 6,314 | 12.9 |
| Michael Howard-Sorrell | Green | 3,568 | 7.3 |
| Richard Whelan | Lib Dems | 3,176 | 6.5 |
| Alan Stone | Other | 571 | 1.2 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- North East Hampshire Lib Dems, toss-up
- Reading West and Mid Berkshire Conservative, toss-up
- North West Hampshire Conservative, safe seat
- East Hampshire Conservative, toss-up
- Winchester Lib Dems, safe seat
- Reading Central Labour, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated