Reading West and Mid Berkshire
Westminster constituency · England · South East
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the Conservatives a 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 4.9 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 52%.
Compared with the average
| Conservative | Reform UK | Labour | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reading West and Mid Berkshire | 28.9% | 23.4% | 23.0% | 11.0% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 20.4%+8.4 | 23.1%+0.3 | 24.3%−1.3 | 10.4%+0.6 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 95,642 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 42 |
| Employment rate | 74.1% |
Current member
Olivia Bailey · Labour
Previous election (2024)
Labour won by 2.9 points.
Our current projection: the Conservatives ahead by 4.9 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Olivia Bailey Elected | Labour | 16,273 | 35.0 |
| Ross Mackinnon | Conservative | 14,912 | 32.0 |
| Kathrin Bosley | Reform UK | 6,260 | 13.5 |
| Helen Belcher | Lib Dems | 5,103 | 11.0 |
| Carolyne Culver | Green | 3,169 | 6.8 |
| Adrian Abbs | Other | 562 | 1.2 |
| Adie Peppiatt | Other | 272 | 0.6 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Basingstoke Labour, toss-up
- Reading Central Labour, safe seat
- Earley and Woodley Conservative, toss-up
- Henley and Thame Lib Dems, safe seat
- Newbury Lib Dems, competitive
- North West Hampshire Conservative, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated