Newbury
Westminster constituency · England · South East
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the Lib Dems a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 6.0 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 28%.
Compared with the average
| Lib Dems | Conservative | Reform UK | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Newbury | 36.5% | 30.4% | 18.8% | 7.7% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 10.3%+26.2 | 20.4%+10.0 | 23.1%−4.2 | 10.4%−2.7 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 97,983 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 42 |
| Employment rate | 84.3% |
Current member
Mr Lee Dillon · Lib Dems
Previous election (2024)
The Lib Dems won by 4.9 points.
Our current projection: the Lib Dems ahead by 6.0 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lee Dillon Elected | Lib Dems | 19,645 | 40.2 |
| Laura Farris | Conservative | 17,268 | 35.3 |
| Douglas Terry | Reform UK | 5,357 | 11.0 |
| Liz Bell | Labour | 3,662 | 7.5 |
| Steve Masters | Green | 2,714 | 5.6 |
| Earl Jesse | Other | 153 | 0.3 |
| Gary Johnson | Other | 131 | 0.3 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Didcot and Wantage Lib Dems, safe seat
- North West Hampshire Conservative, safe seat
- Reading West and Mid Berkshire Conservative, toss-up
- Oxford West and Abingdon Lib Dems, safe seat
- Witney Lib Dems, safe seat
- Basingstoke Labour, toss-up
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated