Witney
Westminster constituency · England · South East
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the Lib Dems a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 9.8 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| Lib Dems | Conservative | Reform UK | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Witney | 37.4% | 27.6% | 20.4% | 6.7% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 10.3%+27.1 | 20.4%+7.2 | 23.1%−2.7 | 10.4%−3.7 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 100,352 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 42 |
| Employment rate | 87.5% |
Current member
Charlie Maynard · Lib Dems
Previous election (2024)
The Lib Dems won by 8.6 points.
Our current projection: the Lib Dems ahead by 9.8 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Charles Maynard Elected | Lib Dems | 20,832 | 41.2 |
| Robert Courts | Conservative | 16,493 | 32.6 |
| Richard Langridge | Reform UK | 6,307 | 12.5 |
| Antonio Weiss | Labour | 4,773 | 9.4 |
| Andrew Prosser | Green | 1,661 | 3.3 |
| Barry Ingleton | Other | 350 | 0.7 |
| David Cox | Other | 168 | 0.3 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Didcot and Wantage Lib Dems, safe seat
- Oxford West and Abingdon Lib Dems, safe seat
- Swindon North Reform UK, toss-up
- Banbury Conservative, toss-up
- Newbury Lib Dems, competitive
- Swindon South Labour, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated