Swindon North
Westminster constituency · England · South West
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives Reform UK a 59% chance of winning, with an average lead of 1.5 points.
Toss-up. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 100%.
Compared with the average
| Reform UK | Conservative | Labour | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Swindon North | 28.3% | 27.2% | 26.9% | 9.9% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 23.1%+5.3 | 20.4%+6.8 | 24.3%+2.6 | 10.4%−0.5 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 107,721 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 39 |
| Employment rate | 78.3% |
Current member
Will Stone · Labour
Previous election (2024)
Labour won by 9.3 points.
Our current projection: Reform UK ahead by 1.5 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Will Stone Elected | Labour | 17,930 | 40.6 |
| Justin Tomlinson | Conservative | 13,827 | 31.3 |
| Les Willis | Reform UK | 7,557 | 17.1 |
| Andy Bentley | Green | 2,366 | 5.4 |
| Flo Clucas | Lib Dems | 2,086 | 4.7 |
| Debbie Hicks | Other | 260 | 0.6 |
| Scott Hunter | Other | 139 | 0.3 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Swindon South Labour, safe seat
- Witney Lib Dems, safe seat
- Chippenham Lib Dems, safe seat
- East Wiltshire Conservative, safe seat
- North Cotswolds Conservative, toss-up
- Newbury Lib Dems, competitive
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated