Swindon South
Westminster constituency · England · South West
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives Labour a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 9.8 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| Labour | Reform UK | Conservative | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Swindon South | 34.6% | 24.2% | 24.1% | 9.7% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 24.3%+10.4 | 23.1%+1.1 | 20.4%+3.7 | 10.4%−0.7 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 113,834 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 39 |
| Employment rate | 76.3% |
Current member
Heidi Alexander · Labour
Previous election (2024)
Labour won by 21.4 points.
Our current projection: Labour ahead by 9.8 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Heidi Alexander Elected | Labour | 21,676 | 48.4 |
| Robert Buckland | Conservative | 12,070 | 26.9 |
| Catherine Kosidowski | Reform UK | 6,194 | 13.8 |
| Roderick Hebden | Green | 2,539 | 5.7 |
| Matthew McCabe | Lib Dems | 1,843 | 4.1 |
| Martin Costello | Other | 472 | 1.1 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Swindon North Reform UK, toss-up
- Chippenham Lib Dems, safe seat
- East Wiltshire Conservative, safe seat
- Witney Lib Dems, safe seat
- North Cotswolds Conservative, toss-up
- Melksham and Devizes Lib Dems, toss-up
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated