Melksham and Devizes
Westminster constituency · England · South West
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the Lib Dems a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 5.2 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 45%.
Compared with the average
| Lib Dems | Conservative | Reform UK | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Melksham and Devizes | 34.6% | 29.4% | 21.8% | 6.9% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 10.3%+24.3 | 20.4%+8.9 | 23.1%−1.2 | 10.4%−3.5 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 94,100 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 48 |
| Employment rate | 87.0% |
Current member
Brian Mathew · Lib Dems
Previous election (2024)
The Lib Dems won by 4.7 points.
Our current projection: the Lib Dems ahead by 5.2 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Mathew Elected | Lib Dems | 20,031 | 39.1 |
| Michelle Donelan | Conservative | 17,630 | 34.4 |
| Malcolm Cupis | Reform UK | 6,726 | 13.1 |
| Kerry Postlewhite | Labour | 4,587 | 9.0 |
| Catherine Read | Green | 2,229 | 4.4 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- South West Wiltshire Conservative, competitive
- Chippenham Lib Dems, safe seat
- Bath Lib Dems, safe seat
- Frome and East Somerset Lib Dems, safe seat
- South Cotswolds Lib Dems, safe seat
- Thornbury and Yate Lib Dems, competitive
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated