South Cotswolds
Westminster constituency · England · South West
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the Lib Dems a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 10.2 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| Lib Dems | Conservative | Reform UK | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| South Cotswolds | 39.3% | 29.1% | 18.6% | 6.0% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 10.3%+29.0 | 20.4%+8.6 | 23.1%−4.5 | 10.4%−4.4 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 95,755 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 47 |
| Employment rate | 80.0% |
Current member
Dr Roz Savage · Lib Dems
Previous election (2024)
The Lib Dems won by 9.5 points.
Our current projection: the Lib Dems ahead by 10.2 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Roz Savage Elected | Lib Dems | 22,961 | 43.9 |
| James Gray | Conservative | 17,988 | 34.4 |
| Desi Latimer | Reform UK | 5,146 | 9.8 |
| Zoë Billingham | Labour | 3,942 | 7.5 |
| Bob Eastoe | Green | 1,564 | 3.0 |
| Chris Twells | Other | 225 | 0.4 |
| Sandy Steel | Other | 183 | 0.3 |
| Martin Broomfield | Other | 156 | 0.3 |
| Owen Humphrys | Other | 122 | 0.2 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Stroud Labour, safe seat
- Thornbury and Yate Lib Dems, competitive
- Filton and Bradley Stoke Labour, safe seat
- Bristol North East Labour, safe seat
- Gloucester Reform UK, toss-up
- Forest of Dean Reform UK, toss-up
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated