Stroud
Westminster constituency · England · South West
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives Labour a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 10.5 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| Labour | Conservative | Reform UK | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stroud | 33.7% | 22.5% | 22.4% | 13.5% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 24.3%+9.4 | 20.4%+2.1 | 23.1%−0.7 | 10.4%+3.1 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 97,407 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 47 |
| Employment rate | 79.1% |
Current member
Dr Simon Opher · Labour
Previous election (2024)
Labour won by 20.6 points.
Our current projection: Labour ahead by 10.5 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Simon Opher Elected | Labour | 25,607 | 46.4 |
| Siobhan Baillie | Conservative | 14,219 | 25.7 |
| Chris Lester | Reform UK | 6,329 | 11.5 |
| Pete Kennedy | Green | 5,729 | 10.4 |
| George James | Lib Dems | 2,913 | 5.3 |
| Saskia Whitfield | Other | 261 | 0.5 |
| Jason Hughes | Other | 163 | 0.3 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- South Cotswolds Lib Dems, safe seat
- Gloucester Reform UK, toss-up
- Thornbury and Yate Lib Dems, competitive
- Forest of Dean Reform UK, toss-up
- Filton and Bradley Stoke Labour, safe seat
- Bristol North East Labour, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated