Gloucester
Westminster constituency · England · South West
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives Reform UK a 49% chance of winning, with an average lead of 1.5 points.
Toss-up. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 98%.
Compared with the average
| Labour | Reform UK | Conservative | Lib Dems | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gloucester | 26.0% | 26.0% | 24.3% | 9.5% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 24.3%+1.8 | 23.1%+2.9 | 20.4%+3.8 | 10.3%−0.8 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 117,614 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 38 |
| Employment rate | 84.9% |
Current member
Alex McIntyre · Labour
Previous election (2024)
Labour won by 7.5 points.
Our current projection: Reform UK ahead by 1.5 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Alex McIntyre Elected | Labour | 16,472 | 36.1 |
| Richard Graham | Conservative | 13,041 | 28.5 |
| Chris Farmer | Reform UK | 7,307 | 16.0 |
| Rebecca Trimnell | Lib Dems | 4,759 | 10.4 |
| Adam Shearing | Green | 2,307 | 5.0 |
| Steve Gower | Other | 974 | 2.1 |
| Akhlaque Ahmed | Other | 496 | 1.1 |
| Fred Wing Commander (RTD) Ramsey | Other | 336 | 0.7 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Stroud Labour, safe seat
- Cheltenham Lib Dems, safe seat
- Forest of Dean Reform UK, toss-up
- Tewkesbury Lib Dems, safe seat
- South Cotswolds Lib Dems, safe seat
- North Cotswolds Conservative, toss-up
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated