Cheltenham
Westminster constituency · England · South West
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the Lib Dems a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 17.0 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| Lib Dems | Conservative | Reform UK | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cheltenham | 45.9% | 28.9% | 10.8% | 8.4% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 10.3%+35.6 | 20.4%+8.5 | 23.1%−12.3 | 10.4%−2.0 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 100,608 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 40 |
| Employment rate | 78.2% |
Current member
Max Wilkinson · Lib Dems
Previous election (2024)
The Lib Dems won by 14.6 points.
Our current projection: the Lib Dems ahead by 17.0 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Max Wilkinson Elected | Lib Dems | 25,076 | 50.6 |
| Alex Chalk | Conservative | 17,866 | 36.1 |
| Daniel Wilson | Green | 3,160 | 6.4 |
| Lara Chaplin | Labour | 2,665 | 5.4 |
| Daud McDonald | Other | 775 | 1.6 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Tewkesbury Lib Dems, safe seat
- North Cotswolds Conservative, toss-up
- Gloucester Reform UK, toss-up
- Droitwich and Evesham Conservative, safe seat
- Stroud Labour, safe seat
- Worcester Labour, toss-up
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated