Worcester
Westminster constituency · England · West Midlands
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives Labour a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 5.5 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 47%.
Compared with the average
| Labour | Reform UK | Conservative | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Worcester | 30.0% | 24.3% | 21.8% | 13.1% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 24.3%+5.7 | 23.1%+1.3 | 20.4%+1.4 | 10.4%+2.7 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 104,120 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 40 |
| Employment rate | 75.9% |
Current member
Tom Collins · Labour
Previous election (2024)
Labour won by 15.5 points.
Our current projection: Labour ahead by 5.5 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Collins Elected | Labour | 18,622 | 40.5 |
| Marc Bayliss | Conservative | 11,506 | 25.0 |
| Andy Peplow | Reform UK | 6,723 | 14.6 |
| Tor Pingree | Green | 4,789 | 10.4 |
| Mel Allcott | Lib Dems | 3,986 | 8.7 |
| Mark Davies | Other | 280 | 0.6 |
| Duncan Murray | Other | 130 | 0.3 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- West Worcestershire Conservative, safe seat
- Droitwich and Evesham Conservative, safe seat
- Wyre Forest Reform UK, toss-up
- Redditch Reform UK, toss-up
- Bromsgrove Conservative, toss-up
- Tewkesbury Lib Dems, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated